|
| |
| |
Special
Commodity Report 1 |
 |
|
Special
Commodity Report 2 |
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
Product Leaflet |
 |
|
|
Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man. Therefore, it
is a timely subject for several reasons. It is the opinion of
the more objective market experts that the traditional investment
vehicles of stocks and bonds are in the areas of their all-time
highs and may be due for a severe correction.
To fully appreciate why 8,000 years of experience say "
gold is forever", we should review why the world reveres
what England's most famous economist, John Maynard Keynes, cynically
called the "barbarous relic."
Why gold is "good as gold" is an intriguing question. However,
we think that the more pragmatic ancient Egyptians were perhaps
more accurate in observing that gold's value was a function
of its pleasing physical characteristics and its scarcity.
- Gold is primarily a monetary asset and
partly a commodity.
- More than two thirds of gold's total
accumulated holdings account as 'value for investment' with
central bank reserves, private players and high-carat Jewellery.
- Less than one third of gold's total accumulated
holdings is as a 'commodity' for Jewellery in Western markets
and usage in industry.
- The Gold market is highly liquid and
gold held by central banks, other major institutions and
retail Jewellery keep coming back to the market.
- Due to large stocks of Gold as against
its demand, it is argued that the core driver of the real
price of gold is stock equilibrium rather than flow equilibrium.
- Economic forces that determine the price
of gold are different from, and in many cases opposed to
the forces that influence most financial assets.
- South Africa is the world's largest gold
producer with 394 tons in 2001, followed by US and Australia.
- India is the world's largest gold consumer
with an annual demand of 800 tons.
|
| |
World Gold Markets
- London as the great clearing house
- New York as the home of futures trading
- Zurich as a physical turntable
- Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong
as doorways to important consuming regions
- Tokyo where TOCOM sets the mood of Japan
- Mumbai under India's liberalized gold
regime
|
| |
| India in World Gold Industry |
| (Rounded
Figures) |
India
(In Tons) |
World
(In Tons) |
%
Share |
| Total Stocks |
13000 |
145000 |
9 |
| Central Bank holding |
400 |
28000 |
1.4 |
| Annual Production |
2 |
2600 |
0.08 |
| Annual Recycling |
100-300 |
1100-1200 |
13 |
| Annual Demand |
800 |
3700 |
22 |
| Annual Imports |
600 |
--- |
--- |
| Annual
Exports |
60 |
--- |
--- |
|
| |
Indian Gold Market
- Gold is valued in India as a savings
and investment vehicle and is the second preferred investment
after bank deposits.
- India is the world's largest consumer
of gold in jewellery as investment.
- In July 1997 the RBI authorized the commercial
banks to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters.
At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold.
- This reduced the disparity between international
and domestic prices of gold from 57 percent during 1986
to 1991 to 8.5 percent in 2001.
- The gold hoarding tendency is well ingrained
in Indian society.
- Domestic consumption is dictated by monsoon,
harvest and marriage season. Indian jewellery offtake is
sensitive to price increases and even more so to volatility.
- In the cities gold is facing competition
from the stock market and a wide range of consumer goods.
- Facilities for refining, assaying, making
them into standard bars in India, as compared to the rest
of the world, are insignificant, both qualitatively and
quantitatively.
Market Moving Factors
- Above ground supply from sales by central
banks, reclaimed scrap and official gold loans
- Producer / miner hedging interest
- World macro-economic factors - US Dollar,
Interest rate
- Comparative returns on stock markets
- Domestic demand based on monsoon and
agricultural output
Frequency Dist. of Gold London Fixing
Volatility from 1995 till date |
| Percentage
Change |
>
5% |
2
- 5 % |
<
2% |
| Daily |
|
|
|
| Number of times |
4 |
54 |
2147 |
| Percentage times |
0.2 |
2.4 |
97.4 |
| Weekly |
|
|
|
| Number of times |
3 |
62 |
376 |
| Percentage times |
0.7 |
14.1 |
85.3 |
|
| |
Biggest
Price Movement since 1995
Between September 24 and October 5, 1999, daily prices witnessed
a rally of more than 21 %, based on surprised announcement by
15 European central banks of a five-year suspension on all new
sales of gold from their reserves. |
| |
| |
| |
|
|
|